Who can win the presidency if nominated?
Oval Odds estimates each 2028 candidate’s chance of winning the presidency as their party’s nominee. It divides their market odds of winning the White House by their odds of winning the nomination.
Most electable in each party
19 points above the Democratic average of 63%
- Win presidency
- 13.3%
- Win nomination
- ÷16.2%
9 points above the Republican average of 48%
- Win presidency
- 8.5%
- Win nomination
- ÷14.9%
What changed
to . Starting prices are from Polymarket’s own price history.
Smaller changes, or ones within half a candidate’s bid–ask range, aren’t listed.
Ranked by electability
Candidates with at least a 2% chance of winning the nomination and reliable Polymarket prices on both markets. Select anyone to see the math.
Win presidency ÷ win nomination = win if nominated
Explore the field
Electability map
Every ranked candidate placed by their chance of being nominated and their chance of winning if they are. It shows at a glance where the nomination favorites and the highest estimates if nominated part ways.
Open the map
Compare candidates
Put up to four candidates side by side: nomination odds, presidency odds, the index, price ranges and how each has moved. A comparison, not head-to-head odds.
Compare candidatesPreviews use Polymarket prices.
How to read the index
The calculation
Chance of winning the presidency divided by chance of winning the nomination, both from the same market, using the midpoint of the best bid and ask.
The party average
Each party’s ranked candidates, weighted by their chances of nomination: roughly the party’s chance with its likely nominee.
The checks
Candidates need a 2% chance of nomination, tight spreads and real orders on both markets to be ranked.
The limits
Markets can be thin, biased or wrong. Each figure is a separate scenario, so they don’t add up to 100%.